A darling, then a warning
In August 2018 YES BANK was one of the most popular stocks in India, near ₹389. Two years later it was a rescue case trading in the teens. Almost everyone who bought on the way down believed they were buying a bargain.
Here is the whole fall, week by week, with the stage underneath.
Step by step
September 2018 — the first crack. News that the RBI was cutting short the chief executive's term sent the stock down 29% in a single day. The price fell below its 30-week line, and the line began to roll over.
October 2018 — Stage 4. Below a falling 30-week line, with lower highs and lower lows. Stage analysis says the same thing here every time: don't buy, and if you own it, get out. At this point the stock had lost more than a third from its high. Selling hurt — and it saved you almost everything that came next.
February to April 2019 — the first base. A 28% jump in a single day in February convinced many that the worst was over, and for a while it looked right: the stock climbed from about ₹175 to over ₹260, rose above its 30-week line, and by April the line had stopped falling. That is what the start of a base looks like. Then, on 30 April, the bank reported its first quarterly loss and the stock fell 29% in a day. The base broke; Stage 4 resumed.
Late 2019 — the second base. Another sideways stretch around ₹45–70, another round of "it can't fall much further". This time the price never even got back above its 30-week line, which kept falling the whole way. It broke too.
March 2020 — the rescue. The RBI placed the bank under a moratorium, and the stock closed near ₹16 — down about 96% from its high. Even a spectacular bounce that followed, more than tripling within days, stayed inside Stage 4.
Why "cheap" kept getting cheaper
At every step, the stock looked cheap compared with where it had been:
| Where it traded | Down from the high | What the stage said |
|---|---|---|
| About ₹240, Oct 2018 | about 38% | Stage 4 — stay out |
| About ₹165, May 2019 | about 58% | a base breaking — stay out |
| About ₹60, Aug 2019 | about 85% | Stage 4 — stay out |
| About ₹16, Mar 2020 | about 96% | Stage 4 — stay out |
Every one of those prices was "cheap" compared with ₹389. Every one of them was also far above where the stock ended up. The stage never changed its answer, because Stage 4 doesn't end when a stock has fallen enough — it ends when the selling runs out and a real base holds.
Why the bases failed
Both looked like Stage 1 to hopeful buyers. Neither gave what stage analysis waits for before buying:
- The first base came close — and still wasn't a buy. The price got above its 30-week line and the line stopped falling, which is how a real base begins. But a base is a reason to watch, not to buy: Stage 2 needs a breakout above the top of the range, with the line turning up. YES BANK never got there. A stock still far below the level it broke down from, with a line that has only just stopped falling, can still roll over — and this one did, on a single day's news.
- The second base was never close. The 30-week line kept falling throughout, and the price never got back above it. That is a pause inside Stage 4, not a base.
Stage analysis didn't need to predict the April 2019 loss or the 2020 moratorium. It only needed you to wait for a breakout that never came.
Try it on Stage2StocksSee which stocks are in Stage 4 todayThe NSE stocks in a decline right now — the list stage analysis says to stay away from, however cheap they look.
Questions people ask
How much did YES BANK shares fall?
From about ₹389 at the August 2018 high to about ₹16 on 6 March 2020, the day after the RBI placed the bank under a moratorium — a fall of about 96%.
When did YES BANK enter Stage 4?
In October 2018, after a 29% one-day fall in September. It stayed in Stage 4, apart from two short bases that both failed, until late 2020.