The whole trend, on one chart
Every lesson in the course shows up in this one stock: a leader found in a falling market, a long Stage 2, a breakout on heavy volume along the way, and a top that gave its warnings before the damage was done.
1 · Found in a falling market (2022)
In early 2022 the market was sliding — the Nifty fell about 16% from January to June, and most stocks far more (case study: 2022). HAL did the opposite. It moved into Stage 2 in February, in the middle of the decline, and rose 42% between mid-January and mid-June.
That is relative strength in its clearest form: a stock rising while the market falls. It was the first reason to put HAL on a watchlist — and lesson 5 shows its relative strength line through those months.
2 · The long advance (2022–2024)
A Stage 2 trend is not a straight line. HAL paused several times — once, briefly, in early 2023 long enough to be called Stage 3 — and each time the 30-week line kept rising and the pullbacks held. The method's job in these months was mostly to do nothing: stay with the trend, and raise the stop under each new higher low.
In the week of 1 December 2023, it broke out above its range of the previous four months on more than two and a half times its normal volume, and it roughly doubled over the next six months. A textbook continuation breakout (lesson 6).
From February 2022 to July 2024, HAL rose about eightfold. The Nifty rose about 39%.
3 · The top (2024)
The top came with the Stage 3 signs from lesson 7: the price stopped making progress, the swings widened, and the 30-week line began to flatten. The first weekly close below the line came in September 2024 — about 22% below the high.
Notice the date. That week, the Nifty closed at a record. HAL's trend was ending while the market was still celebrating — the leaders often top before the index does, one reason breadth narrows before a fall (lesson 3).
Selling on that close gave back about a fifth of the peak. Holding on through Stage 4 gave back 44%.
4 · A new cycle (2025)
Stage 4 ended the way it always does — not because the stock had fallen enough, but because the selling ran out. HAL based in the spring of 2025 and was back in Stage 2 by late May, a new cycle starting from a lower level.
- Lesson 5 — found by relative strength in a falling market.
- Lessons 1–2 — Stage 2: price above a rising 30-week line.
- Lesson 6 — added on a breakout with heavy volume.
- Lesson 7 — stop raised under higher lows; out on the close below a flattening line.
- Lesson 3 — the leader topped before the index: breadth narrowing.
NSE stocks ranked by relative strength, with their stage beside each — where the next HAL would show up first.
Questions people ask
How much did HAL shares rise between 2022 and 2024?
About eightfold on our adjusted prices: from around ₹652 when it entered Stage 2 in February 2022 to a high near ₹5,433 in July 2024. The Nifty rose about 39% over the same stretch.
When did HAL's uptrend end?
It peaked in July 2024, moved into Stage 3 at the end of August, closed below its 30-week line in September — about 22% below the high — and entered Stage 4 in January 2025. The low came in February 2025, about 44% below the high.