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More 1→2 than 2→3 over five sessions means the universe is recruiting new advancers faster than it is losing them. Today the net is -8 — and the 20-day Stage 2 Δ at +4.0 tells you whether that recruitment is sustained or just one good week.
Net transitions at -8 is the cleaner number when both counts move at once — a tape that adds 40 fresh Stage 2 names while losing 25 to Stage 3 is constructive, even if both columns look elevated in isolation. The table below shows how the same Stage 2 % reading sits across four time windows so today's level is not read in isolation.
| 1d Δ | 5d Δ | 20d Δ | 60d Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 2 share (pp) | -0.3 | -1.0 | +4.0 | +24.0 |
A reading where 1d is positive while 60d is negative says the tape is repairing inside a longer contraction — that is the early-bear-exit footprint. The opposite — 60d positive, 1d negative — is the topping footprint. Today the 60-day Δ reads +24.0 against a 1-day of -0.3; the leading-flag booleans below confirm which footprint is live.
The regime label is a single word that summarises the NSE's breadth posture as a whole: Bear, Recovery, Topping, or Bull. It is derived, not observed — six breadth inputs feed it. The streak counter at 33 sessions tells you how long the current label has held without flipping — the flip happened on 2026-06-01.
Below the four-bucket regime sits the five-bucket State 5 label, currently NEUTRAL_UP. The fifth bucket exists to mark the transitional thaw between Bear and Recovery — the moment when breadth quietly starts to repair but the four-bucket label still reads Bear. Most useful at the bottom of a cycle, when the headline regime is still misleading.
The regime is a categorical output from six breadth inputs blended together: % above 200DMA, % above 50DMA, the Stage 2 share level, the Stage 2 share 20-day Δ, the cumulative A/D line slope, and the new-highs minus new-lows differential. Each input maps to a contribution between -2 and +2; the sum lands in one of four buckets — Bear (≤ -5), Recovery (-4 to -1), Topping (0 to +4), Bull (≥ +5).
The State 5 label adds a finer transitional bucket between Bear and Recovery — the "thaw" state where one of the leading flags has fired but the cumulative score has not yet crossed the -5 threshold. State 5 is most useful at the bottom of a contraction, when the four-bucket regime is the lagging label and the flag booleans are the leading reads.
The streak counter tracks the run of consecutive sessions in the same bucket. Inside a bull leg, streaks of 80-180 sessions are typical; inside a bear regime, streaks of 30-90 sessions resolve into a recovery flip. Streaks above 200 sessions are rare and historically have preceded sharp regime changes within the following month.
Four boolean flags track the leading inflection moments inside the regime: early_bear_exit, watch_bear_exit, breadth_rebuild, thrust. They fire at most a handful of times per regime — the work is reading which ones are active today, not whether some flag is on at all times. Today 2 of the four are firing simultaneously.
| State | What it tells you | |
|---|---|---|
| thrust | off | Abnormally broad advances on heavy volume — typically marks the first session of a new leg |
| breadth_rebuild | off | Stage 2 share has started re-expanding after a contraction — leadership rotating to new names |
| watch_bear_exit | FIRING | Confirmed end-of-bear repair after an early_bear_exit signal has held across multiple weeks |
| early_bear_exit | FIRING | Quiet breadth repair while the index still rolls over — the leading bottom-spotting signal |
Volume-thrust footprint today: 6.1% of advancers printed ≥2× average volume, 3.5% printed ≥3×. A regime-change footprint historically has the 2× reading above 15% and the 3× reading above 4% — magnitude converts the thrust flag from a boolean into a window of conviction.
The breadth ladder reads % of NSE above the 20DMA, 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA in one stack. Each row is a different timeframe — shortest at the top, longest at the bottom — and the shape of the stack tells you whether the tape is broadening down into longer timeframes or narrowing up into shorter ones.
A bull tape stacks: 20DMA > 50DMA > 100DMA > 200DMA in reading order. A bear tape inverts. Today, 17.0% of the NSE is in a full bull stack formation — price above all four MAs in their bull order. The opposite — full bear stack — covers 25.2% of the universe. When both numbers move in the same direction the regime is consolidating; when they diverge the tape is bifurcated and stock selection matters more than index direction.
Golden crosses today: 6. Death crosses: 5. The 50/200 crossover is the lagging confirmation of a regime shift that the breadth ladder already showed you days earlier; treat the spread between these two counts as the slow seal on what the faster reads have been saying.
The five-day transition counts in Chapter 1 are the size; the names below are the substance. Up to eight fresh 1→2 moves and eight 2→3 moves from the live tape. The first list is where new long-side work is forming; the second is where existing leadership is being distributed out of.
Today: 0 fresh 1→2 · 0 fresh 2→3 · 5d totals: 45 / 53
Historical T+30 for 1→2 entries scoring 8 or higher on the setup score in a BULL regime: hit rate 50.9%, average return 3.4%. Sample: 10,115 historical entries since 2024-01-01. The names on today's list will write the next row of that table over the next 30 sessions.
No fresh 1→2 transitions on the live tape today.
No fresh 2→3 transitions on the live tape today — the Stage 2 cohort held intact across the session.
The acceleration column on the 1→2 list and the 20-day slope column on the 2→3 list are the kinetics check. A 1→2 with acceleration is a base breakout that should run; a 1→2 without acceleration is more often a head-fake into a failed base. A 2→3 with a negative 20-day slope is true distribution; a 2→3 with a flat slope is more likely a brief shakeout from which the stock re-enters Stage 2 inside a week.
Where the regime is going matters more than where it currently sits. Over the last thirty sessions the NSE-wide Stage 2 share has moved from 22.6% on 2026-06-05 to 34.5% today . The regime over that window has been expanding.
The 60-day Δ at +24.0 sets the longer-window context. When the 20-day Δ and the 60-day Δ have the same sign, the trend is intact; when they disagree, the tape is in an inflection. The most common NSE pattern is a positive 60-day Δ with the 20-day rolling first — that is the topping footprint, and it has historically led the four-bucket regime label by 15–25 sessions.
FII and DII flow direction is what most NSE retail readers want to know first; the daily ₹ crore numbers are noisy enough that the direction over a window matters more than any single day. The cleanest proxy on the breadth tape is the slope of the cumulative A/D line — net institutional accumulation shows up in advancers consistently outnumbering decliners across multiple sessions.
Today the cumulative A/D line reads -3,15,704. Its 20-day slope is -3,512 — the tape is distributing across the last twenty sessions.
This is a proxy, not a substitute. The raw NSE end-of-day FII/DII report splits foreign and domestic cash flows separately and is the better single-day read for who is buying. The cumulative A/D slope is the better window read — most useful on days when the two disagree, because that gap is the rotation signal.
On any session you can pull NSE's "FII Cash" figure from the end-of-day Bhavcopy bulletin (₹ crore, sign-conventioned net buy/sell). Match the sign of that number against the sign of the cumulative A/D slope above for the same session. Three patterns:
Both positive: institutional accumulation is broad — the FII flow is showing up in the median stock, not just the largest 50. Highest-confidence regime for new Stage 2 entries.
FII positive, slope negative: the FII flow is concentrated in the index-heavyweight names while the broader tape rolls over. The Nifty 50 print is the lagging indicator here; the slope is leading.
FII negative, slope positive: DII and retail are absorbing FII selling across a wide enough basket that breadth is still expanding. This pattern preceded the Sep-Oct 2022 Nifty bottom — FII cash was net negative for nine consecutive sessions while the slope had already turned constructive.
A snapshot without a baseline is not a read. Today's Stage 2 share at 34.5% only earns interpretation against where it has been — over a month, a quarter, and a year. The three rows below convert a level into a position.
| Today | Window avg | Δ vs avg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30-day windown=30 | 34.5 | 31.8 | 2.7 |
| 90-day windown=90 | 34.5 | 18.9 | 15.6 |
| 365-day windown=365 | 34.5 | 20 | 14.5 |
What Stage 2 share misses: it does not distinguish a tape lifted by three mega-cap names from one lifted by 600 mid-caps. On days when the Nifty 50 print disagrees with this row, pair it with the sector dispersion shown in the transitions list above — that gap is where the rotation is happening.